Risk Culture, Neoclassical Economics, and Enterprise Risk Management

Financial regulators, rating agencies and many commentators have blamed weak Risk Culture for many of the large losses and financial company failures of the past decade. But their exposition regarding a strong Risk Culture only goes as far as describing a few of the risk management practices of an organization and falls far short of describing the beliefs and motivations that are at the heart of any culture. This discussion will present thinking about how the fundamental beliefs of Neo Classical Economics clash with the recommended risk practices and how the beliefs that underpin Enterprise Risk Management are fundamentally consistent with the recommended risk management practices but differ significantly from Neo Classical Economics beliefs

All on the same train, but heading in different directions

Insurance company managers are surveyed to discern their alignment with four risk attitudes predicted by Plural Rationality Theory. Each company management team is shown to contain a mix of beliefs, but not always the same mix. Since each belief is tied to a different expectation for appropriate risk management, there are inherent conflicts with a risk management culture that is tied to a single belief. The paper concludes with descriptions of hybrid risk management cultures that would have some appeal to various pairs of the four beliefs

Hydrogeomorphic Classification for Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands

A hydrogeomorphic classification scheme for Great Lakes coastal wetlands is presented. The classification is hierarchical and first divides the wetlands into three broad hydrogeomorphic systems, lacustrine, riverine, and barrier-protected, each with unique hydrologic flow characteristics and residence time. These systems are further subdivided into finer geomorphic types based on physical features and shoreline processes. Each hydrogeomorphic wetland type has associated plant and animal communities and specific physical attributes related to sediment type, wave energy, water quality, and hydrology

NON-FREE VORTEX FLOW EFFECTS IN AN AXIAL FLOW ROTOR

This paper presents the analysis of three-dimensional flow field developing through an industrial axial flow fan rotor of non-free vortex design carried out on the basis of concerted experimental and numerical investigations. The paper focuses on non-free vortex flow effects requiring consideration in rotor blade design theories. The distortion of stream surfaces through the blading has been observed and a quantitative analysis of its effects on the blade loading condition has been carried out in the through-flow core region. The streamlines close to the blades have been modelled fitting to outward and inward conical stream tubes on the blade suction and pressure sides, respectively - termed `cone couple model´. It has been pointed out that the blade lift can be satisfactorily described at midspan on the basis of the cone couple model, with use of pitch-averaged flow data. The loading aspects of the tested axial rotor have been discussed on the basis of both the pressure distribution in the vicinity of the blades and pitch-averaged flow data obtained upstream and downstream of the rotor. Sample calculations suggested that separate optimisation of the blade suction and pressure sides is essential if the three-dimensional blade-to-blade flow is intended to be considered in NFV fan design with use of two-dimensional cascade data

Modeling the Variety of Decision Making

Static or deterministic actuarial models work with a single set of assumptions for all of the variables in the model. Most commonly, those assumptions might be selected to be the most likely values, or to values that produce an outcome for the model calculations that is likely to be achieved “most of the time” (i.e. most likely assumptions with provisions for adverse deviations). Deterministic models are also used in risk management related stress and scenario testing, where the assumptions are chosen to be static but at unlikely and adverse values. It has become common in risk management related calculations to use dynamic or stochastic models. One or several of the key assumptions are set to vary under a set of rules and other assumptions as well as the ultimate calculations should vary along with the stochastic variables. And yet one assumption that is often held to be a static table of actions are the things that management has discretionary power to do in the future. Often called simply “management actions.” Examples that relate to risk models include choices regarding execution of ALM and hedging programs, structure and extent of reinsurance purchases as well as underwriting standards and choice of the products/markets to do business. These management actions are usually the most critical in the lead up to and immediately following an experience of acute adverse experience. This report presents the argument that (a) management actions cannot be definitively determined from past actions or current intentions; (b) there are a number of potential actions that management might take in and around times of adverse experience, and which of those actions that will be taken will be determined by the future management at that time based upon their vision at that time of the most likely potential future; and (c) an actuary can build this additional variability into a stochastic model to provide a more realistic range of future experience among the stochastic scenarios

Delayed and localized pemphigus vulgaris after breast cancer radiotherapy

Breast cancer treatment involving ionizing radiation causes characteristic radiation dermatitis in the majority of patients. The DNA damaging effects of radiation can rarely predispose to primary inflammatory dermatoses, such as pemphigus vulgaris. In such cases, the disease presents with all the hallmarks of the primary dermatosis, but the eruption is limited to the field of irradiation and is often amenable to treatment. In contrast, occurrence of generalized pemphigus vulgaris in this setting may mean cancer recurrence. The mechanism by which radiotherapy induces localized disease remains unknown, but there is likely a loss of self-tolerance which maybe coupled to antigen exposure

Finiteness and children with specific language impairment: an exploratory study

Children with specific language impairment (SLI) are well known for their difficulties in mastering the inflectional paradigms; in the case of learning German they also have problems with the appropriate verb position, in particular with the verb in second position. This paper explores the possibilities of applying a broader concept of finiteness to data from children with SLI in order to put their deficits, or rather their skills, into a wider perspective. The concept, as developed by Klein (1998, 2000), suggests that finiteness is tied to the assertion that a certain state of affairs is valid with regard to some topic time; that is, finiteness relates the propositional content to the topic component. Its realization involves the interaction of various grammatical devices and, possibly, lexical means like temporal adverbs. Furthermore, in the acquisition of finiteness it has been found that scope particles play a major role in both first- and second-language learning. The purpose of this paper is to analyze to what extent three German-learning children with SLI have mastered these grammatical and lexical means and to pinpoint the phase in the development of finiteness they have reached. The data to be examined are mostly narrative and taken from conversations and experiments. It will be shown that each child chooses a different developmental path to come to grips with the interaction of these devices

Shipping noise in a dynamic sea:a case study of grey seals in the Celtic Sea

Shipping noise is a threat to marine wildlife. Grey seals are benthic foragers, and thus experience acoustic noise throughout the water column, which makes them a good model species for a case study of the potential impacts of shipping noise. We used ship track data from the Celtic Sea, seal track data and a coupled ocean-acoustic modelling system to assess the noise exposure of grey seals along their tracks. It was found that the animals experience step changes in sound levels up to ~20dB at a frequency of 125Hz, and ~10dB on average over 10-1000Hz when they dive through the thermocline, particularly during summer. Our results showed large seasonal differences in the noise level experienced by the seals. These results reveal the actual noise exposure by the animals and could help in marine spatial planning